The Jellybean Principle – Overestimation… The Habit of Disappointment

miWisdom today… The vast majority of people have a natural tendency to overestimate their time, work, energy, decisions and actions. This is known as the Jellybean principle, which is the act of being incapable of estimating correctly how many colored Jellybeans are in the jar.  

Back in high school there was always someone organizing a Jellybean counting competition of some sorts each year. They would get hold of the largest glass jar or container they could find, and would “stuff” it with as many jellybeans as was humanly possible. Then, one-by-one each student would attempt to guess how many Jellybeans were enclosed within the jar. I was intrigued as to how students would go about estimating the number of Jellybeans that were in the jar. 

• Would they try to calculate it mathematically based on the size of each jellybean and the dimensions of the glass jar?
• Would they just attempt to “guestimate” how many jellybeans would fit in a jar of that size?
• Or would they go to extra lengths and attempt to replicate my jellybean competition by purchasing their own jellybeans and jar?

The methods and ways these students used were as varying as their jellybean estimates. Yet, one interesting factor came out of this competition. This one factor in many ways explains how people think and how they go about their daily lives and decisions.

What I found was that 77% of entries that I received overestimated the jellybean count within the jar, and only 23% underestimated it. Given these results; what do they teach us about human nature?

People naturally have a tendency to overestimate their daily decisions and actions. They overestimate:

• Time – the time it will take them to complete a task or project
• Energy – the energy they have to undertake a certain activity
• Work – the amount of work they have to do within a specific time frame
• Decisions – the impact that their decisions will have on others, themselves and life
• Actions – the impact that their actions will have on others, themselves and life

Of course, not everyone overestimates the above points. Yet, based on the Jellybean Principle most people do have a habit and tendency towards making these kinds of decision and actions - and this is what leads to much hardship and disappointment in life.

People naturally tend to overestimate because they simply do not have enough information or experience within a specific field or area to make a more accurate estimate of what it would take to accomplish a certain task. They will look at a task and will only see it from the surface, from an outsider’s perspective. And it’s from this perspective that they will base their decisions. 

It’s much like looking at a box that has wrapping all over it. On the surface, everyone knows that it’s a box, and that to open a box it takes certain actions and tools. However, what many of us fail to understand is that what we see on the surface may not be quite what we will experience during the process and act of opening the box. We simply fail to ask ourselves the right questions, or fail to garner the necessary foresight in order to fully understand and comprehend the time, energy, and work it will take to accomplish each task. This lack of foresight is what leads to disappointment and potentially low levels of self-esteem.

Before you begin a new and unfamiliar task, you might like to ask yourself the following questions:

• What aspects of this task am I confident I can accomplish successfully without any outside assistance?
• What aspects of this task am I not familiar with?
• How can I go about becoming familiar and confident with these aspects?
• What if what I thought I knew wasn’t true at all? How can I verify that my knowledge and experience is adequate in accomplishing this task successfully?
• Do I understand that what might have worked in the past may not in fact work as planned today? How can I prepare for this possibility?
• What questions must I ask myself throughout this task to ensure that I stay on track and within the timeframe I have allocated?

If you have a similar learning experience or would like to add to the list of questions, you may do so by commenting below.